EU Market Update: BOE members back-track some recent hawkish tone



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Article content EU Market Update: BOE members back-track some recent hawkish tone

24.06.2014 11:43 Tuesday
- German IFO Survey comes in softer than expected
- BOE members echo concern that slack in economy might be higher than 1.0-1.5%

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss may Trade Balance (CHF): 2.8B v 2.5B prior; Real Exports M/M: -5.0 v +0.8% prior; Real Imports M/M: -2.5% v -0.1% prior
- (FI) Finland May PPI M/M: 0.2 v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.4% prior
- (FI) Finland May Unemployment Rate: 10.7% v 9.0% prior
- (HU) Hungary Q1 Current Account: €984M v €795Me
- (NL) Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB): Apr Global Trade Volume +1.3% m/m
- (CZ) Czech Jun Business Confidence: 11.1 v 9.9 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: -2.8 v -4.0 prior; Composite: 8.3 v 7.1 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Leading Indicator: 99.5 v 99.5 prior
- (EU) ECB €11M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €5.0M prior; €25.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €26.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Jun Producer Confidence Index: 0.7 v 0.9e
- (DE) Germany Jun IFO Business Climate: 109.7 v 110.3e; Current Assessment: 114.8 v 115.0e ; Expectations Survey: 114.8 v 106.0e
- (IT) Italy May Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.2% prior
- (UK) May BBA Loans for House Purchase: 41.8K v 41.0Ke
- (IS) Iceland May Wage Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 5.2% v 4.8% prior
- (IT) Italy May Non-EU Trade Balance: €2.5B v €1.7B prior

Fixed Income:
- (UK) DMO opened book to sell £5.0B new 3.50% Jan 2045 Gilts; guidance seen +1-2bps over 2044 Gilt; order book over £14B
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total €1.2B vs. €1.0-2.0B indicated range in 2016 and 2042 DSL bonds
- Sold €400M in 0.0% July 2016 DSL; Avg Yield: 0.082% v 0.325% prior
- Sold €800M in 3.75% Jan 2042 DSL; Avg Yield 2.315% v 2.581% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €3.533B vs. €2.5-3.5B indicated range in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- Sold €933M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.110% v 0.295% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.79x v 3.54x prior
- Sold €2.6B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.307% v 0.552% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.43x v 2.34x prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 3% 2024 Bonds; Yield: 2.55% v 2.79% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted €115.0B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.15% vs. €102.5Be
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF707M in 3-month Bills; Yield: -0.134%

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.3% at 6,783, DAX -0.1% at 9,913, CAC-40 flat at 4,514, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 11,093, FTSE MIB -0.6% at 21,554, SMI flat at 8,648, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,949]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets in Europe open slightly higher following mixed trading in Asia and the US, UK's Imagination Technologies gains after reporting FY results (issued outlook warning in March),BMW supported by broker commentary, Syngenta gains on M&A speculation, Shares of Banca Monte Paschi remain volatile as capital raise period continues, Airline sector rebounds amid decline in oil prices, German IFO data below ests (follows weaker than expected June prelim PMI)

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary [BMW BMW.DE +2% (broker commentary), Carpetright CPR.UK +2% (FY results in line); Domino Printing DNO.UK -13% (cautious outlook), Colruyt COLR.BE -2.5% (FY profits below ests), Daimler DAI.DE -0.5% (broker commentary), Tesco TSCO.UK -0.5% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Syngenta SYNN.CH +4% (M&A speculation), Acciona ANA.ES +2% (asset sale); Croda CRDA.UK -8% (profit warning), Chemring CHG.UK -7% (profit warning)]
- Technology [Imagination Technologies IMG.UK +6% (positive broker commentary after FY results)]
- Energy [Bowleven BLVN.UK +12% (asset sale)]
- Telecom [Altice ATC.NL -5% (share placement)]
- Healthcare [Santhera SANN.CH +8% (issued independent valuation report); Thrombogenics THR.BE -28% (ended sale process)]
- Financials [Banco Commercial Portuguese BCP.PT -2.5% (renewed capital raise speculation)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Utilities +0.9%, Technology +0.6%, Energy +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Telecom +0.2%, Industrials flat; Financials -0.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.2%

- BOE Gov Carney and members Bean, Miles and McCafferty testified to Treasury Select Committee on Quarterly Inflation Report
- Gov Carney: Timing of first rate hike to be data dependent and to be limited and gradual when they do come. Notable that latest wage data was softer than BoE's expectations, wage data in isolation suggested more spare capacity. Economy had more momentum than BoE expected. Mansion House speech view on rates was his personal one
- BOE's Bean reiterated gradually moving toward normalization, exact date was data dependent; preferred later exit from stimulus rather than early exit. Early stimulus exit risked foregoing improvements in productivity, while a late exit that causes inflation pressure could be easily dealt with by rate hike; recovery likely to be subdued compared to prior ones. Still expected pay growth to edge up in 2014.
- BOE's Miles saw significant degree of spare capacity and could be more than 1.5%
- BOE's McCafferty: did not dissent from MPC view on spare capacity of 1-1.5%
- IFO Economist stated that manufacturers remained optimistic on exports but the domestic economy feared impact from Ukraine and Iraq crisis. ECB move had no major impact on economy
- Poland Central Bank Chojna-Duch (dovish) stated that she saw 'slight' chance for rate cut in July. The ECB June rate cut increased the likelihood of one in Poland
- Italy PM Renzi spoke on EU Presidency and stressed that EU: Leaders needed to choose direction of EU project and not names of commissioners. Appointment of EU Commission chief should not simply reflect European Parliamentary results (but cannot ignore it). Low turnout and support for Euro skeptic in EU elections was a concern. Italy committed to EU fiscal rules; not asking for breach of EU deficit limits but a different interpretation
- Japan PM Abe 3rd arrow policy council speech stated that it was important to implement growth strategy speedily. To act on the growth strategy immediately. To cut corporate tax below 30% in phases over next several years beginning next Apr. Pension investment needed to enact portfolio management reforms quickly. To revise tax system to promote women in workforce and lay out basic framework of corporate governance code by this fall
- Australia Trade Min Robb: Australia-China free trade agreement could be finished in 2014
- PBoC Researcher Ma stated that net capital flows might not be as large as expected if China opened up capital account. Reiterated China needed to increase yuan flexibility to deal with capital flows
- Indonesia Central Bank gov Martowardojo: To continues tightening until end of 2014
- Iraqi forces said to have regained control of large Baiji refinery

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD initially fell below the 1.36 handle following the softer-than-expected German IFO Survey. However, the slight sell-off was The Euro remains steadfast for the time being despite dovish theme from numerous ECB members in recent sessions.
- Various BOE members highlight slack in UK economy in testimony; GBP currency moves below 1.70 level as a result

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PT) Portugal Apr Current Account Balance: No est v -€187.1M prior
- (ES) Spain May YTD Spain Budget Balance: No est v -€14.17B prior
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (FI) Finland's Government to Send Its Policy Program to Parliament
- (AT) Russian President Putin visits Austria
- (EU) EU General Affairs Ministers hold meeting in Luxembourg
- (EU) Nato Foreign Ministers hold meeting in Brussels
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Q1 Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May PPI M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.7% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €1.0B in 2.125% 2023 bond
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces upcoming OFZ auction
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut some key rates unchanged: Benchmark Repurchase to be cut by 50bps to 9.00%; Overnight Lending Rate seen unchanged at 12.00%; Overnight Borrowing Rate seen unchanged at 8.00%
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Jun Capacity Utilization: No est v 74.4% prior; Real Sector Confidence: No est v 113.3 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 10bps to 2.30%
- 08:00 (AT) ECB's Nowotny
- 08:05 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) Apr CaseShiller/CS 20 City M/M: 0.80%e v 1.24% prior; Y/Y: 11.50%e v 12.37% prior; Home Price Index: 169.09e v 166.8 prior
- 09:00 (US) Apr FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Jun Business Confidence: -6.4e v -6.8 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 0.5%e v 3.0% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile May PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil May Current Account Balance: -$6.6Be v -$8.3B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $5.2Be v $5.2B prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 3-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.15% (prior €13.2B with 97 bids recd)
- 09:50 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) in Frankfurt
- 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Lew testifies on FSOC
- 10:00 (US) Jun Consumer Confidence Index: 83.5e v 83.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 7e v 7 prior
- 10:00 (US) May New Home Sales: 439Ke v 433K prior
- 10:00 (MX) Weekly Mexico International Reserves
- 11:00 (EU) ECB's Knot (Netherlands) in Dutch Parliament
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.85-1.10B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $25B in 4-week and 52-week Bills
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil May Total Formal Job Creation: 88.0Ke v 105.4K prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 2-Year Notes
- 15:30 (US) Fed's Williams
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v 105 prior
- 18:30 (US) Fed's Williams in CA
- 23:00 (AU) RBA's Lowe speaks in Melbourne
- (AR) Argentina Jun Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 38.1 prior
- (US) Colorado holds Primary Elections
- (US) Maryland holds Primary Elections
- (US) New York holds Primary Elections
- (US) Oklahoma holds Primary Elections
- (US) Utah holds Primary Elections