European Market Update: Services PMI register all time low readings ahead of key European interest rate decisions on Thursday

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European Market Update: Services PMI register all time low readings ahead of key European interest rate decisions on Thursday

03.12.2008 17:23 Wednesday

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (TH) Thai Central Bank cuts benchmark interest rate by 100bps to 2.75%, more than the 50bps expected

- (NO) Norway Nov PMI: 40.7 v 40.7e; lowest reading on record

- (SP) Spain Nov PMI Services: 28.2 v 32.2 prior; lowest reading on record

- (IT) Italian Nov PMI Services: 39.5 v 43.4e; lowest reading on record

- (FR) French Nov Final PMI Services: 46.2 v 46.6e; lowest reading on record

- (GE) German Nov Final PMI Services: 45.1 v 46.2e

- (SP) Spain Nov Consumer Confidence: 48.7 v 50.1 prior; lowest reading on record

- (EU) Nov Final PMI Service: 42.5 v 43.3e; Composite: 38.9 v 39.7e; lowest readings on record

- (UK) Nov PMI Services: 40.1 v 41.2e; lowest reading on record

- (EU) Euro-zone Retail Sales M/M: -0.8% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -1.5%e

- (UK) BRC Nov Shop Price Index M/M: 0.2 % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.0% prior

 

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities, the CEO of Taiwan Semi [TSM] said the company would reduce its 2009 CAPEX due to the ongoing economic weakness and that the manufacturing department would take an unpaid leave in December. || The CEO of Man AG [MAN.GE] stated that the company planned to cut 2009 truck production by 30%, citing the difficult outlook. Man is planning to halt truck production for 40 to 50 days over the course of the first half of 2009. The CEO noted that the company is preparing for a longer downturn and sees no reason to expect that economic crisis will be over in six months. || Telecom Italia [TIT.IT] guided FY09 EBITDA in a range of €9.9-10B, compared to estimates of €11.5B. The company sees next year's revenue around €22.7-22.8B, below consensus estimates of €30B, while 2009 CAPEX is forecasted at €3.3B. The firm expects to cut another 4K Italian positions, or 5% of its workforce. Telecom Italia's CEO reiterated that there were no plans for a capital increase. || France's EDF offered to purchase up to 50% of nuclear unit of Constellation Energy [CEG] for $4.5B. It sees the transaction closing in six to nine month. || Infineon [IFX.GE] reported Q4 net loss of €763M, worse than the €321M loss expected, while revenues were €1.15B, ahead of expectations for €1.09B. The company guided Q109 revenue down 30% versus Q4 and noted that its fiscal 2009 revenues could be down at least 15% y/y. || Anglo Irish [ANGL.UK] reported full-year net of €670M, well below last year's €998M figure and cancelled its final dividend. The firm's Tier 1 capital stands at 8.4%, and it plans to take €500M charge against loan losses (0.715 of book), adding that its lending rose by €9.3B to €73.2B in total. || Sage [SGE.UK] reported a FY08 pretax £241.0M v £223.3M y/y and revenue of £1.30B v £1.16B y/y. Its growth in subscription revenues has continued to offset weakness in software revenues, but the firm remains cautions on outlook and expects demand for customer support to remain robust || Stagecoach [SGC.UK] reported a H1 Net £69.4M v £65.8M y/y and revenue of £1.05B. The company plans to cut jobs in UK rail operations, noting that it expects business to continue to perform well despite the difficult market conditions but added it saw a challenging 2009/10 outlook in UK rail. || DS Smith [SMDS.UK] reported a H1 net of £17.3M v 40.7M y/y and revenue of £1.1B v £642.7M y/y. It expects trading conditions to remain difficult as a result of lower demand across all markets and sought to cut investment and CAPEX. || Statoil Hydro [STL.NO] reached a settlement on merger structuring costs regarding Hydro oil and gas assets. It expects gain of NOK1.46B in 4Q following settlement and noted that arbitration case to be withdrawn. It also said it would cutt partner charges by NOK550M. || Hiscox [HSX.UK] Expanded International business as it would open five new offices in the US but noted ot would close its Bermuda based specialist reinsurance team. The company also confirmed S&P upgraded its ratings to A from A- on Dec 1. || Gemalto said it would terminate its tender for Wavecom [AVM.FR], noting that an increased bid was not in the shareholders' interest (Note: Back on 12/02, Sierra Wireless said it would acquire Wavecom in a friendly deal). || An Indian court dismissed a tax petition from Vodafone [VOD.UK], but the company can apparently appeal the decision to a higher court. The petition concerned Vodafone's challenge of a tax bill relating to its 2007 acquisition of Hutchison Essar. || Arcandor [ARO.GE] named Karl-Gerhard Eick CEO, effective March 1, 2009. || Coca Cola Hellenic Bottling [CCH] reiterated its 2008 profit forecast. It remains confident about growth possibilities in Russia but expressed concern over weaker currencies. The company noted its emerging market strategy remains intact. || The CEO of MTU Aero Engines [MTX.GE] noted the company was awarded nine maintenance orders in November worth a total of around €500M. He added that the economic slowdown in air traffic has not affected business. || Finally, the Australian government made cautious comments about any takeover of Qantas [QAN.AU].

 

- In speakers, the Chinese cabinet announced plans to ensure liquidity through the use of FX and interest rates. The cabinet stated that it would increase bond sales and stabilize stock markets. It would encourage commercial banks to increase lending. Lastly the Cabinet suggested additional use of the reserve requirement to enhance liquidity too. || The Bank of Korea announced it would pay interest on reserves for first time in 22 years. The Central Bank would pay a total of KRW500B and purchase additional securities issued by Local State Housing Corp. in open market operations. The moved come to improve domestic liquidity || German Econ Min Glos called for a quick decision on rescue package by EU. || The Irish Finance Minister noted that there was little room for more tax increases in 2009 and added that the Irish Government would borrow more in 2009 than it did in 2008. Bank management talks continue week by week and that the State could use pension funds to provide support to banks. || Germany's VDA said the 2009 passenger car market would decline to its lowest level since German reunification in 1990. It sees production and export of passenger cars declining significantly in 2009 and that the financial market crisis would impact employment in auto sector. It forecasted 2009 new car registration at 2.9M. || The Hungarian Central Bank noted that he saw a slowing need for currency measures and that the FX swap and bond markets were showing signs of normalization.

 

- In currencies, the GBP exhibited a fresh round of weakness as continued 'speculation' that the government was considering 'possible' entry into the euro. Today's vague Daily Express article on the topic aided to the downside momentum to the GBP. Kindly note that one of the Prime Minister's spokespeople had denied such speculation earlier this week, adding that the UK position on the euro remains unchanged. However the weekend comments from EU's Barrosa is hindering the upside GBP potential for the time being. || Risk aversion continued to maintain a foothold during the session. The GBP/JPY Cross tested below 137 level to hit its lowest level since Jul 1995. The CNY was steady today ahead of US Treasury Sec Paulson visit to Beijing. Overall the EUR/USD continues a consolidating pattern ahead of Thursday's central bank meetings with the 1.24 to 1.29 range basically intact.

 

- In Fixed Income: Sweden sells SEK3.5B 4.25% 2019 Bonds, avg yield 2.65% . The Dec Bund futures contract hit fresh contract highs of 120.4 in early trading after successive weak PMI's, before reversing most of these gains to trade just 7 ticks above yesterdays close at 123.54. The 2y Schatz , down just over 1bps at 2.10% , continues to rally ahead of tomorrows ECB rate decision, strength replicated in short end Gilts where the 2y is down 2bps and yielding below 1.75%. US Treasuries are pulling back from the past two days of plunging yields, with selling across the board and giving no discernible change to the shape to the yield curve

 

- In Energy: Qatar Oil Minister: Oil below $70/barrel is not economically feasible and noted that it is certain that OPEC would cut output at its Dec meeting. || Eni [ENI.IT] Declared force majeure on 15-18K bbp of Nigerian production || Statoil Hydro [STL.NO] STL.NO: Reached settlement on merger structuring costs regarding Hydro oil and gas assets and expected gain of NOK1.46B in 4Q following settlement || Reportedly Gasoline inventories held by CNPC and Sinopec rose to 33.1M barrels in Oct from 30.9M barrels m/m. The diesel inventories of both companies rose to 51.6M barrels in Oct from 46.8M m/m. In commodities, Australian PM Rudd stated that he did not expect the mining boom to completely unwind and added that commodity prices unlikely to fall below 2003 levels || Reportedly, China's central government is mulling buying all types of base metals for its reserves.

 

*** NOTES ***

- The Euro Zone Services PMI registered record low readings ahead of the BoE and ECB interest rate decisions on Thursday. EONIA interest rate contracts forecast a 75bp rate cut by ECB on Thursday compared to the 50bp consensus expectations. Reminder: Back on Dec 1st, ECB sources registered concern that a cut of 75 bps or more could stoke panic, and added that it saw little chance of a deflationary spiral in the EU. The BOE is expected to cut by 100bps to 2.00% on its Thursday MPC meeting. European companies continue to issue profit warnings and cautious outlooks for 2009 as highlighted by Man AG and Infineon. Taiwan Semi suggestion that economic weakness would last a fairly long time has brought back a renew degree of risk aversion to the market sentiment. The year-end funding issue will be key. Euribor rates continue to edge lower but dealers noting that Japan's Tokyo 3 month Interbank rate (Tibor) has moved for the 18th consecutive sessions, despite actions by the BoJ. Financial markets are trading cautiously ahead of three key employment surveys from the U.S. today, Thursday and Friday.

 

Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e 28 Nov: There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 1.5%.

- 7:30 (US) Nov Challenger Job Cuts: Y/Y there are no consensus expectations; The prior number was 78.9%.

- 8:15 (US) Nov ADP Employment Change: Consensus expectations are -205k; The prior number was -157k.

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Final Non-farm Productivity. Consensus expectations are 0.9%; The prior number was 1.1%.

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Final Unit Labor Costs. Consensus expectations are 3.6%; The prior number was 3.6%

- 9:00 (BE ) Belgian Q3 Final GDP. Q/Q there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 0.1% . Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 1.2%.

Speakers

- 11:00 (SZ) SNB's Roth speaks in Vezia, Switzerland

- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lacker, Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis, Wachovia CEO Bob Steel speak in Charlotte


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